Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 20.760184 22.635700 24.716625 27.219795 30.181150 33.614985 37.962444
2025-01-19 18.580158 21.181186 24.305105 28.427009 33.878395 41.096471 51.884629
2025-01-26 16.498811 19.373944 23.019735 28.165548 35.592869 46.615309 65.972212
2025-02-02 15.112951 18.165758 22.209955 28.252378 37.685541 53.328985 86.146140
2025-02-09 14.102498 17.279870 21.646250 28.502006 40.006619 61.319139 116.117436
2025-02-16 13.246063 16.482528 21.064997 28.567555 41.989055 69.630070 158.828877
2025-02-23 12.436779 15.657051 20.322190 28.216129 43.099310 76.749166 214.335307
2025-03-02 11.841805 15.076013 19.866692 28.243416 44.917838 86.724749 322.244498
2025-03-09 11.276403 14.485885 19.326385 28.023420 46.161439 96.182923 508.553237
2025-03-16 10.770337 13.942796 18.802510 27.745427 47.202662 106.059914 914.619764
2025-03-23 10.325684 13.459626 18.328144 27.485782 48.221935 117.071791 2292.235935
2025-03-30 9.945643 13.049230 17.935562 27.324094 49.446763 130.582989 46414.467383
2025-04-06 9.509494 12.532370 17.335255 26.699876 49.396736 139.112606 NaN
2025-04-13 9.402073 12.523007 17.592148 27.839149 54.522747 184.797969 NaN
2025-04-20 9.082565 12.156712 17.201187 27.574004 55.555318 209.101657 NaN
2025-04-27 8.839816 11.900152 16.983206 27.652077 57.714357 251.200746 NaN
2025-05-04 8.638026 11.698417 16.846494 27.890227 60.534940 316.999761 NaN
2025-05-11 8.427134 11.470211 16.644157 27.952260 62.820363 398.594624 NaN
2025-05-18 8.179478 11.169254 16.287938 27.612914 63.539252 467.959749 NaN
2025-05-25 7.993929 10.963404 16.094997 27.638998 65.738993 617.673491 NaN
2025-06-01 7.791605 10.720403 15.817003 27.426744 66.932244 788.825603 NaN
2025-06-08 7.595125 10.479343 15.528850 27.158562 67.831332 1020.234426 NaN
2025-06-15 7.412135 10.254193 15.258800 26.908044 68.761587 1387.608474 NaN